Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C0 0xc0ab…2de4 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$128 (+5%) realized +$213 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$565now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$30
crypto 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +11.5% +0.9% 78% 67% -4.0%
≤30d 9 +11.5% +0.9% 78% 67% -4.0%
≤90d 9 +11.5% +0.9% 78% 67% -4.0%
all 9 +11.5% +0.9% 78% 67% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 67% -4.0%
10% -8.8% 33% -13.2%
15% -17.6% 33% -21.6%
20% -25.7% 11% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$150 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$565
Realized+$213
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)9 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 77¢ 52¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 24¢ $100 $49 −$51 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$16 +8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $302 +$66 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $504 +$185 +37%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 −$300 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$26 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 77¢ $101 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 35¢ $84 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $100 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 82¢ $201 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 81¢ $101 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $100 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 36h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $151 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $565.11 · official $565.11 (match) · 27 history records