trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -26.1% | -33.2% | 50% | 50% | -23.9% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 64% | 64% | -0.1% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 64% | 64% | -0.1% |
| all | 20 | -15.7% | -23.7% | 55% | 55% | -12.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.7% | 55% | -12.6% |
| 10% | -31.0% | 45% | -20.9% |
| 15% | -37.7% | 45% | -28.6% |
| 20% | -43.8% | 35% | -35.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 20¢ | $20 | $26 | +$6 (+32%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? | Jun 28 | $101 | +$16 | +15% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 25 | $91 | −$90 | -99% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 25 | $20 | +$17 | +82% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 24 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 24 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 22 | $101 | +$58 | +57% |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 22 | $51 | +$18 | +36% |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? | Jun 21 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $101 | +$55 | +55% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $51 | +$31 | +62% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $51 | +$53 | +105% |
| Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8 | Mar 09 | $22 | −$22 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 7? | Mar 08 | $5 | +$2 | +37% |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? | Mar 08 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? | Mar 08 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | Mar 06 | $5 | +$1 | +15% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? | Mar 06 | $50 | +$27 | +54% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET | Feb 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | Jan 30 | $60 | +$41 | +68% |
| Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5? | Jan 03 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |