Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0b2…962d crypto 1456 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$459 (-3%) realized −$435 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate79%1146W / 308L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$38
14 days−$63
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$457
economics 1% −$139
world 0% −$2
sports 0% −$3
other 0% −$3
finance 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +6.4% -3.7% 100% 12% -3.8%
≤30d 190 -2.4% -11.7% 92% 3% -10.8%
≤90d 1454 -3.3% -12.5% 79% 37% -13.5%
all 1454 -3.3% -12.5% 79% 37% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 37% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 17% -21.8%
15% -28.5% 7% -29.3%
20% -35.5% 3% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$435
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1146 / 308
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1454 / 1456
History coverage74d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 88¢ 50¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-44%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 96¢ 50¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $35 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $29 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $18 +$7 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 09 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $34 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 09 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $31 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $18 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $36 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $11 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.10 · official $30.10 (match) · 3129 history records