Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0b6…3a92 world 317 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$331 (+1%) realized +$487 · open −$156
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate32%96W / 206L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$185est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$719now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$263
7 days−$807
14 days−$1,017
30 days−$824
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$638
sports 28% −$357
politics 12% +$23
other 11% −$234
crypto 7% −$123
tech 1% −$1
economics 1% −$175
finance 0% −$65
culture 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -13.2% -21.5% 34% 23% -16.5%
≤30d 176 -5.0% -14.1% 30% 22% -14.4%
≤90d 302 -1.2% -10.6% 32% 25% -9.9%
all 302 -1.2% -10.6% 32% 25% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 25% -9.9%
10% -19.2% 20% -18.5%
15% -27.0% 18% -26.4%
20% -34.2% 13% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$24 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$719
Realized+$487
Unrealized−$156
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses96 / 206
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$185
Open positions9
Markets (closed)302 / 317
History coverage70d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? Yes 61¢ 50¢ $344 $280 −$65 (-19%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Over 59¢ 44¢ $350 $262 −$88 (-25%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $54 $56 +$2 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $45 $56 +$11 (+26%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 41¢ 48¢ $28 $34 +$5 (+18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? No $20 $6 −$15 (-71%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 13¢ $13 $5 −$8 (-61%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 56¢ 91¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $344 −$104 -30%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $304 −$132 -44%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $71 +$24 +34%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $82 +$47 +58%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Wil Jun 17 $15 +$37 +238%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $304 +$196 +65%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $161 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $504 +$200 +40%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $31 −$1 -4%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 −$16 -51%
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $31 −$14 -47%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $195 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $110 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $149 +$65 +43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $125 −$74 -59%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $37 +$19 +51%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $37 +$15 +42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $119 +$31 +26%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $296 +$6 +2%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $607 −$195 -32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $506 −$165 -33%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $77 −$4 -5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $75 −$10 -14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $307 −$92 -30%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $77 −$9 -11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $77 −$2 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $504 +$210 +42%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $487 −$12 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $153 −$12 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$1 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $118 −$42 -36%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $57 +$43 +75%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$6 -68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $49 −$26 -54%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $140 +$24 +18%
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $109 −$66 -60%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$15 -15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$29 -57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $23 −$8 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $36 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $36 −$32 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $354 12m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $40 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $40 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 36¢ $201 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $304 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 35¢ $172 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $304 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 95¢ $87 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 95¢ $8 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $129 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $82 7h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No $21 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $3 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY $3 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $5 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY $10 15h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 71¢ $71 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $0 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $1 18h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $161 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $304 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $504 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 38¢ $29 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $31 25h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 24¢ $15 26h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $30 26h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 38h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 40h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 61¢ $344 40h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $18 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $719.17 · official $743.40 · 1456 history records