Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0b7…6936 other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$596 (+1%) realized +$678 · open −$82
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate85%90W / 16L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$398per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$3,622now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$30
14 days−$6
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$88
world 15% +$22
politics 14% +$232
sports 9% +$149
culture 6% +$113
economics 5% +$48
tech 3% +$111
finance 2% +$3
crypto 0% −$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -8.3% -17.0% 88% 6% -9.0%
≤30d 25 -8.3% -17.1% 84% 4% -7.9%
≤90d 30 -6.1% -15.0% 87% 7% -6.9%
all 106 -2.9% -12.2% 85% 13% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 13% -8.1%
10% -20.6% 5% -16.9%
15% -28.2% 3% -24.9%
20% -35.3% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$71 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$3,622
Realized+$678
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses90 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions15
Markets (closed)106 / 121
History coverage213d
Avg bet$398
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $2,027 $2,035 +$8 (+0%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Under 99¢ 99¢ $560 $562 +$2 (+0%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? No 90¢ 91¢ $540 $548 +$7 (+1%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 76¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Kelly Ayotte win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Republican primary election? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-01 House seat? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $88 $40 −$47 (-54%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MA-04 House seat? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $13 $8 −$4 (-35%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $8 −$32 (-81%)
Will the Republican Party win the WA-01 House seat? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will the Republican Party win the MA-04 House seat? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will Corey Lewandowski win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Republican primary election? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $1,002 +$64 +6%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $67 −$67 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $35 +$1 +2%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $300 +$12 +4%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $300 +$12 +4%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $549 +$37 +7%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $100 +$11 +11%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $793 +$7 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $192 +$8 +4%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $199 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $514 +$32 +6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $495 +$5 +1%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $884 −$37 -4%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $97 $0 +0%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $112 +$3 +3%
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 04 $647 +$1 +0%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 04 $2,539 +$176 +7%
Will Kim Myeong-ho win the 2026 Jeju Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 04 $229 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 04 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $36 +$2 +6%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca May 20 $1,467 +$31 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? May 05 $790 +$3 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 12 $1,771 +$39 +2%
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31? Apr 01 $1,487 +$108 +7%
Will the People Power Party win 6 or more seats in South Korea’s June Mar 27 $713 +$100 +14%
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Mar 22 $807 +$1 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $2,812 −$194 -7%
Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28? Feb 27 $2,727 +$93 +3%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Feb 25 $64 +$12 +18%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by March 15? Feb 22 $384 +$44 +11%
Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Feb 21 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $211 +$2 +1%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28? Feb 16 $150 +$24 +16%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi Feb 16 $2,475 +$155 +6%
Will the Reform Party (RP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 pa Feb 15 $111 +$5 +5%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 mil Feb 09 $570 +$15 +2%
Will Kim Keon Hee be sentenced to prison by March 31? Jan 29 $3,916 +$125 +3%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 27 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 22 $1,041 +$77 +7%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 21 $434 +$9 +2%
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? Jan 20 $1,337 −$307 -23%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Jan 11 $288 +$8 +3%
Nothing Ever Happens: January Jan 07 $23 +$4 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $49 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $178 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 59m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 1h
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? BUY No 91¢ $275 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $101 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $101 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $200 3h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 3h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $300 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $100 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $100 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $100 3h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 97¢ $100 4h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $10 9h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $50 9h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $30 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? BUY No 98¢ $100 9h
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? BUY No 89¢ $268 18h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No $0 19h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No $0 19h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No $0 19h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No $1 19h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 24h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $9 24h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $9 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,622.35 · official $3,627.89 (match) · 891 history records