Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0bc…b904 sports 363 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,458 (-5%) realized −$3,458 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%128W / 234L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$110
14 days−$110
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$3,354
other 30% +$2,230
world 8% −$590
politics 6% −$1,645
crypto 5% +$18
culture 0% −$111
economics 0% −$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.9% -18.5% 25% 25% -33.4%
≤30d 8 -9.9% -18.5% 25% 25% -33.4%
≤90d 15 -48.6% -53.5% 13% 13% -55.5%
all 362 -11.7% -20.1% 35% 35% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 35% -14.3%
10% -27.8% 31% -22.5%
15% -34.7% 28% -30.0%
20% -41.1% 24% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$121 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,458
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses128 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)362 / 363
History coverage158d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 362 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $43 +$62 +145%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $43 −$43 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $75 −$74 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $20 +$35 +176%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $72 −$71 -98%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 14 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-28? Apr 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $28 −$28 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $24 −$12 -50%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $24 +$102 +426%
Lakers vs. Warriors Mar 01 $61 −$61 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $482 −$421 -87%
Will Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? Feb 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? Feb 15 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 4 Winner Feb 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Feb 15 $332 −$332 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Dallas Open: Taylor Fritz vs Marin Cilic Feb 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 15 $325 −$325 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $895 +$973 +109%
Suns vs. Spurs Feb 15 $50 −$11 -22%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $350 −$25 -7%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $427 +$105 +25%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $100 −$93 -93%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 15 $49 −$6 -12%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 15 $135 −$5 -4%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 15 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Torino FC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Feb 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $1,509 −$1,509 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $66 +$78 +118%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $50 +$75 +149%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $64 +$81 +127%
Will Como 1907 vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? Feb 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $444 +$610 +137%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $650 +$263 +40%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $150 +$112 +74%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $150 +$59 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $104 25m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 84¢ $104 27m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $105 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $43 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $43 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $43 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $43 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $55 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Team Vitality 42¢ $55 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 15¢ $20 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 8¢ $20 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $72 6d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 37d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 7¢ $52 37d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $28 64d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 1¢ $25 75d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 0¢ $33 76d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 80d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 80d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $24 80d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? BUY Yes 41¢ $126 109d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $126 109d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-03? BUY Yes 19¢ $24 109d
Lakers vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 19¢ $61 111d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 1¢ $61 111d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 3¢ $90 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 3¢ $44 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 3¢ $23 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $103.00 · 1110 history records