Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:05:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C0 0xc0bf…40be crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$26 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate65%28W / 15L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day50.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$40
other 19% $0
weather 2% +$4
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +7.3% -2.9% 65% 60% -6.9%
≤30d 43 +7.3% -2.9% 65% 60% -6.9%
≤90d 43 +7.3% -2.9% 65% 60% -6.9%
all 43 +7.3% -2.9% 65% 60% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 60% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 56% -15.8%
15% -20.7% 42% -24.0%
20% -28.5% 35% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$34 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses28 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 49
History coverage2d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day50.6
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 50¢ 48¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$68 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$15 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $77 +$44 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$63 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$43 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $78 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$25 +97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $32 +$10 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $150 +$15 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Jun 24 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $33 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $41 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 40m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $30 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.25 · official $24.25 (match) · 115 history records