Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:42:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C0 0xc0c4…153f other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$439 (-22%) realized −$431 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$308
sports 8% −$44
crypto 5% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -28.4% -35.2% 44% 33% -49.2%
≤30d 9 -28.4% -35.2% 44% 33% -49.2%
≤90d 9 -28.4% -35.2% 44% 33% -49.2%
all 9 -28.4% -35.2% 44% 33% -49.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 33% -49.2%
10% -41.4% 33% -54.0%
15% -47.0% 33% -58.5%
20% -52.2% 11% -62.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$118 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$979
Realized−$431
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage5d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $988 $979 −$8 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $392 −$389 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $67 +$26 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $104 +$62 +60%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $105 +$50 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $999 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $47 38h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 24¢ $47 38h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $201 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $91 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $67 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $104 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $105 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 4d
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? SELL Yes 99¢ $106 4d
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $979.45 · official $979.45 (match) · 18 history records