Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:55:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0c4…8129 other 270 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,529 (+2%) realized +$14,529 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate67%180W / 90L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$2,620per market
Trades / day40.4pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$3,508
politics 28% $0
sports 6% +$800
crypto 0% +$26
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -22.3% -29.7% 63% 16% -9.3%
≤30d 142 -12.1% -20.5% 61% 19% -9.1%
≤90d 270 -14.3% -22.4% 67% 15% -9.0%
all 270 -14.3% -22.4% 67% 15% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 15% -9.0%
10% -29.9% 10% -17.7%
15% ← realistic here -36.6% 6% -25.6%
20% -42.9% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$1,914) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$29 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14,529
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses180 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions0
Markets (closed)270 / 270
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$2,620
Trades / day40.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 270 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5,288 +$38 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $287 −$3 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $178,850 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $117 +$5 +4%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $1,483 +$24 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $1,826 +$9 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $508 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $577 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $9,288 +$148 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 +69%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $315 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $12 +$8 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $363 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $112 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $769 +$10 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $412 −$308 -75%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $2,116 +$653 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $412 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Gaming vs CHAOS - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,847 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $906 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $75 −$75 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4,177 +$296 +7%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $655 +$95 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $268 −$268 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $329 −$302 -92%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $481 +$319 +66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $402 +$98 +24%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $4,753 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $58 +$7 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $123 +$7 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $553 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $46 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $2 $0 -7%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 $0 -11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $796 +$204 +26%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,015 −$15 -2%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $10,486 +$14 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $185 22m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $59 23m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $147 23m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $384 23m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3,936 48m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $72 49m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 52m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 52m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $174 52m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 52m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 52m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 52m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3,420 54m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $296 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $44 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $154 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $294 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $38 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $239 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $355 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $109 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $533 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $12 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records