Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc0c7…3826 finance 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$17 (+11%) realized +$28 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 71% −$18
sports 29% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +23.0% +11.3% 50% 50% +4.5%
≤30d 2 +23.0% +11.3% 50% 50% +4.5%
≤90d 2 +23.0% +11.3% 50% 50% +4.5%
all 2 +23.0% +11.3% 50% 50% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.3% 50% +4.5%
10% +0.6% 50% -5.5%
15% -9.1% 50% -14.6%
20% -18.0% 50% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$8 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.3 per $1 lost it wins $3.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $39 $29 −$11 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? Jun 24 $71 −$8 -11%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $45 +$26 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? SELL Yes 20¢ $63 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? BUY Yes 21¢ $71 10h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 22h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 63¢ $45 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.56 · official $28.56 (match) · 5 history records