Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:19:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C0 0xc0c8…dfd9 weather 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$429 (-2%) realized −$429 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%77W / 13L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$203
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$223
weather 16% −$1
other 10% −$198
world 10% −$10
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 54 -2.2% -11.5% 85% 0% -13.8%
≤90d 82 -1.4% -10.8% 89% 0% -12.5%
all 90 -1.5% -10.9% 86% 0% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -11.7%
10% -19.4% 0% -20.2%
15% -27.2% 0% -27.9%
20% -34.3% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$35 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$429
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses77 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)90 / 94
History coverage97d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $123 $123 +$0 (+0%)
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$6 -28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $276 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 11? Jun 12 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 10? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 8? Jun 09 $150 $0 +0%
Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #1 Free App in the US Apple App S Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 5? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 5? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 08 $105 $0 +0%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 2? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 04 $254 $0 +0%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $50 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 31? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on May 30? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on May 31? Jun 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on May 31? Jun 02 $132 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $51 $0 +0%
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 30 $63 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on May 29? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $213 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Maíllo be the next President of Andalusia following the r May 28 $50 $0 -0%
Will Heritage win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembl May 28 $50 $0 -0%
Will Orinats Yerkir win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A May 28 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 27? May 28 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 27? May 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $123 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 9d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 9d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 10d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 73¢ $14 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $77 11d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 11d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $276 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $55 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $44 14d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $6 14d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $121 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $100 15d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $50 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $150 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $20 17d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $50 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $55 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.47 · official $240.57 (match) · 201 history records