Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:00:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0cb…2a68 other 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%23W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$9
sports 22% −$5
politics 22% −$4
crypto 10% −$2
culture 7% −$1
economics 5% $0
world 4% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 60 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 181 -0.7% -10.2% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses23 / 158
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage166d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $93 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $32 $0 -1%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 12 $111 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 11 $85 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 10 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $215 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 09 $175 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $171 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 08 $109 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $164 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 07 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $123 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $141 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 05 $327 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $136 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 03 $45 $0 -1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 03 $84 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 02 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $184 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $44 $0 +0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $92 −$1 -2%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 31 $69 −$2 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $39 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 30 $39 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $145 −$2 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 29 $40 $0 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 29 $91 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 28 $91 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 SELL No 94¢ $30 12d
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY No 94¢ $30 13d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $39 20d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $39 20d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 32d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 32d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $32 68d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $33 69d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $41 69d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $41 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 69d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $35 69d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $35 69d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $37 69d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $38 70d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $43 70d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $43 70d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 93¢ $43 70d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $43 70d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $35 70d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $35 70d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $32 70d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $32 71d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $40 71d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $40 71d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $31 71d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $31 71d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $42 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.12 · official $35.12 (match) · 608 history records