Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

C0 0xc0ce…be7d other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,051 (-23%) realized −$1,202 · open +$151

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip

Net edge-41%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate42%10W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$182per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$734now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$512

7 days−$545

14 days−$545

30 days−$545

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-41.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-41.0%	-46.6%	38%	31%	-25.9%
≤30d	16	-41.0%	-46.6%	38%	31%	-25.9%
≤90d	16	-41.0%	-46.6%	38%	31%	-25.9%
all	24	-35.2%	-41.4%	42%	33%	-32.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-41.4%	33%	-32.2%
10%	-47.0%	29%	-38.7%
15%	-52.1%	25%	-44.6%
20%	-56.8%	17%	-50.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -35% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -36% → late -34% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$82 vs −$129 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.45 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage

Net worth$734

Realized−$1,202

Unrealized+$151

Win rate (resolved)42%

Wins / losses10 / 14

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)24 / 25

History coverage168d

Avg bet$182

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	Over	79¢	100¢	$582	$734	+$151 (+26%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$509	+$77	+15%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$82	−$82	-100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$335	+$174	+52%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$139	−$139	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$153	+$264	+172%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$276	+$16	+6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$189	+$86	+46%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 22?	Jun 22	$101	−$100	-99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$105	−$103	-98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$49	−$48	-97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$333	−$330	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$280	−$278	-99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$251	+$131	+52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$118	−$115	-97%
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Feb 08	$281	−$281	-100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 4PM ET	Jan 06	$142	−$142	-100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 3PM ET	Jan 06	$87	−$87	-100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 2PM ET	Jan 06	$70	+$17	+24%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 1PM ET	Jan 06	$128	−$6	-5%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 12PM ET	Jan 06	$56	+$21	+37%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 11AM ET	Jan 06	$124	+$3	+2%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 10AM ET	Jan 06	$59	+$31	+52%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	79¢	$586	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	99¢	$586	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$509	3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$509	13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$335	16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	14¢	$82	16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	35¢	$139	18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	36¢	$153	18h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	95¢	$0	20h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	98¢	$292	21h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$276	21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$189	26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 22?	BUY Up	67¢	$101	29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	20¢	$105	41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	10¢	$49	44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$333	45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$280	47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	47h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	8¢	$51	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$251	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	2¢	$118	3d
Seahawks vs. Patriots	BUY Patriots	33¢	$281	134d
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 4PM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$18	167d
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 4PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$109	167d
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 4PM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$16	167d
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 3PM ET	SELL Down	0¢	$0	167d
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 3PM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$63	167d
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 3PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$25	167d
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 2PM ET	SELL Down	63¢	$87	167d
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 2PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$70	167d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $733.64 · official $733.64 (match) · 52 history records