Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:51:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C0 0xc0d5…ea77 sports 201 markets active 1d ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate68%136W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$6
14 days+$8
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$14
crypto 1% −$1
economics 1% −$4
tech 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -16.1% -24.1% 58% 42% -23.2%
≤30d 39 +13.5% +2.7% 77% 72% +2.2%
≤90d 94 +3.3% -6.5% 72% 65% -3.8%
all 199 -2.0% -11.3% 68% 62% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 62% -8.4%
10% -19.8% 46% -17.2%
15% -27.6% 35% -25.2%
20% -34.7% 22% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses136 / 63
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)199 / 201
History coverage166d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 90¢ 42¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 24 $5 +$1 +14%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Madison Keys Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $1 $0 +9%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $5 +$2 +42%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Jun 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 22 $5 +$2 +38%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $5 +$2 +40%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 22 $1 $0 -33%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $6 +$2 +34%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Ilay Yoruk Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 $0 +27%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $5 +$1 +23%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 07 $2 +$1 +62%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu May 29 $1 +$1 +52%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro May 29 $1 +$1 +86%
Roland Garros WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys May 29 $2 $0 +16%
Roland Garros WTA: Donna Vekic vs Naomi Osaka May 29 $4 +$1 +32%
Roland Garros WTA: Julia Grabher vs Amanda Anisimova May 29 $5 +$1 +18%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens May 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Mary Stoiana May 28 $2 +$1 +46%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Madison Keys vs Cristina Bucsa May 28 $5 −$2 -41%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Susan Bandecchi vs Viktoria Hruncako May 28 $2 +$2 +79%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez May 28 $5 +$3 +60%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Ann Li May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Xinyu Wang vs Lois Boisson May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Maria Sakkari vs Peyton Stearns May 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Yulia Putintseva vs Oleks May 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Paris: Kimberly Birrell vs Katie Boulter May 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Paris: Shuai Zhang vs Himeno Sakatsume May 13 $2 +$1 +55%
Paris: Madison Keys vs Fiona Ferro May 13 $3 +$1 +20%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Elena Rybakina May 12 $2 $0 +13%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Zeynep Sonmez May 08 $1 $0 +24%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Eva Lys May 08 $2 +$1 +31%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns May 08 $2 +$1 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Xiyu Wang 73¢ $5 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Iga Swiatek 74¢ $5 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Anna Kalinskaya 54¢ $2 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson BUY Qinwen Zheng 53¢ $2 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Tatjana Maria 87¢ $5 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 96¢ $5 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 92¢ $1 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 70¢ $5 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 51¢ $1 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 72¢ $5 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 71¢ $5 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 74¢ $1 3d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 90¢ $2 8d
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa SELL Paula Badosa 75¢ $1 8d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 89¢ $5 9d
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 57¢ $1 9d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 68¢ $1 9d
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Katerina Siniakova 65¢ $2 9d
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 71¢ $2 9d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 74¢ $6 10d
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 48¢ $1 10d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 87¢ $5 10d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 60¢ $5 10d
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Tatjana Maria 62¢ $5 10d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 60¢ $2 10d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic BUY Daniil Medvedev 65¢ $5 12d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 51¢ $1 12d
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Ilay Yoruk BUY Julia Adams 38¢ $2 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 78¢ $1 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 81¢ $5 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.72 · official $1.72 (match) · 376 history records