Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C0 0xc0d5…34fb other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$432 (+51%) realized +$443 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 234d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$459
other 18% −$31
culture 3% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +87.0% +69.2% 100% 100% +53.8%
≤30d 2 +87.0% +69.2% 100% 100% +53.8%
≤90d 2 +87.0% +69.2% 100% 100% +53.8%
all 6 -37.7% -43.6% 33% 33% +40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 33% +40.0%
10% -49.0% 33% +26.6%
15% -53.9% 33% +14.4%
20% -58.5% 33% +3.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt +55% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$241 vs −$17 · ×14.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.05 per $1 lost it wins $7.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$443
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage234d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $17 $4 −$13 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $670 +$462 +69%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $40 −$21 -52%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Dec 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.55 · official $65.55 (match) · 171 history records