Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:27:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C0 0xc0d6…2109 sports 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 753d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$105 (+3%) realized +$118 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%34W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$95
14 days+$194
30 days+$418
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$510
other 27% +$190
crypto 22% −$269
politics 6% −$182
finance 3% −$97
world 2% −$65
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +10.0% -0.4% 57% 57% +8.3%
≤30d 31 +18.7% +7.4% 61% 58% +26.2%
≤90d 69 -12.0% -20.4% 49% 46% -6.6%
all 69 -12.0% -20.4% 49% 46% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 46% -6.6%
10% -28.0% 42% -15.5%
15% -35.0% 38% -23.7%
20% -41.3% 33% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$31 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

753d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized+$118
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses34 / 35
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions11
Markets (closed)69 / 82
History coverage753d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 42¢ 42¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Under 47¢ 30¢ $33 $21 −$12 (-37%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $59 +$41 +70%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $41 +$39 +97%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $42 +$58 +140%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$68 +134%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$5 +27%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $22 +$18 +82%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $29 +$31 +109%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$25 +82%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$20 +64%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $13 +$12 +97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$53 +105%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $20 +$20 +97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $16 +$24 +146%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $78 +$22 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 12 $15 +$13 +87%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $9 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $195 +$95 +48%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $50 +$150 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9PM ET May 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7PM ET May 13 $52 +$30 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6PM ET May 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3PM ET May 13 $21 +$29 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12PM ET May 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1AM ET May 13 $29 +$16 +54%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $197 +$46 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 09 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? May 08 $52 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7PM ET May 08 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5PM ET May 07 $16 +$17 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2AM ET May 07 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1AM ET May 07 $56 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3AM ET May 06 $30 −$30 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 6? May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 6? May 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 6? May 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 47¢ $33 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $35 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $53 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $0 22h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $28 22h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $1 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $41 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $59 23h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $7 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $42 26h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $51 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $4 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $7 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $8 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $20 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $22 4d
Son Heungmin: 3+ shots AND Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots BUY 62¢ $51 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $29 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $36 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $25 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $30 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $6 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 44¢ $25 8d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $13 8d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.72 · official $184.57 · 221 history records