Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0d6…68b5 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 309d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%8W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% −$3
politics 20% $0
other 15% $0
culture 9% $0
tech 8% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
weather 4% −$1
finance 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.0% -11.3% 20% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 15 -1.6% -11.0% 27% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 15 -1.6% -11.0% 27% 0% -10.0%
all 47 -0.9% -10.3% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage309d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 52¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $13 −$1 -7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $56 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 23 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 21 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on Augu Aug 21 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 15–August 22? Aug 18 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 15–August 22? Aug 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $3 $0 +5%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 17 $40 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $5 $0 -4%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? Aug 17 $47 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 16 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $40 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $40 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $45 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 36h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 43h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 43h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 43h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $9 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $8 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.62 · official $38.62 (match) · 158 history records