Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C0 0xc0db…5e67 crypto 580 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$241 (+4%) realized +$274 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%303W / 272L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day84.7pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days+$269
14 days+$205
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$142
other 8% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 349 -0.5% -10.0% 62% 46% -3.5%
≤30d 575 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 41% -6.4%
≤90d 575 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 41% -6.4%
all 575 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 41% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 41% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 30% -15.3%
15% -27.8% 22% -23.5%
20% -34.9% 17% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$274
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses303 / 272
Open positions5
Markets (closed)575 / 580
History coverage10d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day84.7
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 575 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down on June 18? Up 37¢ 20¢ $45 $24 −$21 (-46%)
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 18? Up 29¢ 30¢ $22 $22 +$1 (+2%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Down 43¢ 72¢ $6 $11 +$4 (+69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Up 30¢ 12¢ $23 $9 −$14 (-62%)
XRP Up or Down on June 18? Up 15¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Up 16¢ 28¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 248 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$34 -69%
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$8 +42%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$2 -13%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -94%
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$8 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $54 +$7 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $83 +$136 +164%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $41 +$8 +20%
XRP Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $55 +$113 +206%
BNB Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $80 −$35 -44%
Solana Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $47 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$46 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$19 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$38 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$26 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 31m
XRP Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 8¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 16¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 26¢ $4 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 26¢ $4 3h
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 4h
Solana Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 17¢ $3 4h
Solana Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 17¢ $3 4h
XRP Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 17¢ $3 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $4 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 4h
Solana Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 15¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 14¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 24¢ $4 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $4 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $4 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.12 · official $73.98 · 1143 history records