Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:03:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0dc…3163 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$4
other 28% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 17 -0.9% -10.4% 35% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 17 -0.9% -10.4% 35% 0% -9.0%
all 30 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -9.1%
10% -20.9% 0% -17.8%
15% -28.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.59 per $1 lost it wins $3.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage461d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $97 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $70 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $53 +$2 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $47 +$2 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $51 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Iceland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 57°F or higher on March 27? Mar 29 $14 $0 +1%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged before April? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 26 $15 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $54 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $24 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $19 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $28 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $50 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $15 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 42h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $18 47h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $18 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $48 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $26 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.22 · official $53.98 (match) · 105 history records