Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:16:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0dc…782c crypto 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-5%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day36.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$285
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -32.2% -38.7% 41% 28% -28.5%
≤30d 69 -32.2% -38.7% 41% 28% -28.5%
≤90d 69 -32.2% -38.7% 41% 28% -28.5%
all 69 -32.2% -38.7% 41% 28% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.7% 28% -28.5%
10% ← realistic here -44.5% 19% -35.3%
15% -49.9% 7% -41.6%
20% -54.8% 3% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day36.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $101 −$98 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $153 −$26 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $56 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $55 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$14 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $34 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $18 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $33 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $53 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $50 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $17 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $52 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $7 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $7 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $27 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.19 (match) · 168 history records