Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:27:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C0 0xc0df…5974 sports 192 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,268 (+8%) realized +$23,327 · open −$2,059
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%91W / 92L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$1,385per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$3,939est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4,441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,324
7 days+$19,092
14 days+$22,571
30 days+$19,000
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$44,448
other 12% −$21,370
crypto 2% −$2,623
world 1% −$3,516
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -2.8% -12.1% 48% 46% -0.6%
≤30d 183 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 49% -2.7%
≤90d 183 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 49% -2.7%
all 183 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 49% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 49% -2.7%
10% -20.0% 48% -12.0%
15% ← realistic here -27.7% 46% -20.5%
20% -34.8% 42% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,523) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,457 vs −$1,235 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$4,441
Realized+$23,327
Unrealized−$2,059
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses91 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$3,939
Open positions4
Markets (closed)183 / 192
History coverage20d
Avg bet$1,385
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 72¢ $2,000 $2,600 +$600 (+30%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 38¢ 14¢ $2,000 $731 −$1,269 (-63%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 20¢ $1,500 $591 −$909 (-61%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 28¢ $1,000 $518 −$482 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $1,522 −$113 -7%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $506 +$200 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $407 +$470 +116%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $1,116 +$1,063 +95%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,016 +$1,066 +105%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,011 +$556 +55%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,418 +$1,056 +74%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $765 +$671 +88%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $497 −$484 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $763 −$750 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,577 −$3,516 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,023 +$1,190 +59%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,518 +$867 +57%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,540 −$1,500 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,542 −$2,500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,620 −$1,600 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,518 −$1,500 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,522 −$1,500 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $4,309 −$4,250 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,536 −$2,500 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2,537 −$2,500 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,521 −$1,500 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,527 −$1,500 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1,520 −$1,500 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,522 −$1,500 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5,118 +$15,891 +310%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1,523 −$1,500 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3,551 −$3,500 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1,018 +$1,397 +137%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $2,535 +$2,177 +86%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,031 +$1,531 +50%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,027 −$1,000 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4,095 −$4,000 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1,519 +$1,067 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,056 −$3,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4,068 +$2,879 +71%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,521 −$1,500 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,523 −$1,500 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1,526 −$1,500 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $1,531 +$2,693 +176%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $1,526 +$1,687 +111%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $1,521 −$1,500 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,518 −$229 -15%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1,517 +$868 +57%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,516 +$771 +51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3,522 +$863 +24%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,520 −$1,500 -99%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $1,020 +$776 +76%
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $618 −$603 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 21¢ $512 29m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 48¢ $508 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $1,522 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $1,013 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England BUY 17¢ $256 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $1,013 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2,027 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 49¢ $1,409 14h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $1,522 14h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 81¢ $706 14h
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,179 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,081 15h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 51¢ $609 16h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $508 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $506 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 46¢ $407 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,016 18h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 64¢ $1,011 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 99¢ $2,474 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 56¢ $1,418 20h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $1,436 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $497 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $257 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY 15¢ $205 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $507 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $763 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,033 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2,543 40h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 100¢ $2,185 40h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $1,028 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,440.64 · official $4,776.94 · 477 history records