Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C0 0xc0e4…3b89 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 400d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+11%) realized +$75 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$162
politics 31% +$341
world 17% −$96
crypto 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-72.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 9 -70.0% -72.8% 11% 11% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -72.8% 11% +5.1%
10% -75.4% 11% -4.9%
15% -77.8% 11% -14.1%
20% -80.0% 11% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$341 vs −$33 · ×10.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized+$75
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)9 / 16
History coverage400d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $130 $132 +$3 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Putin remain President of Russia through June? Jun 06 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (H.B. 1598) signed in 2025? May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $200 +$341 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.61 · official $180.13 (match) · 54 history records