Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:09:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0e9…9934 crypto 299 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$377 (+5%) realized +$377 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%201W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$234
7 days−$191
14 days−$191
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$28
other 0% −$10
world 0% +$1
politics 0% −$2
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 39% -19.4%
≤30d 51 -12.8% -21.1% 51% 43% -18.9%
≤90d 299 -1.9% -11.2% 67% 50% -10.0%
all 299 -1.9% -11.2% 67% 50% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 50% -10.0%
10% -19.7% 38% -18.6%
15% -27.5% 27% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 18% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$21 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$377
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses201 / 98
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)299 / 299
History coverage47d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 299 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $102 −$93 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$86 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $128 −$22 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$30 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$51 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $131 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$49 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$98 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $102 −$51 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +20%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -63%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -86%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 29 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 22 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $28 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 804 history records