Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0ed…a802 crypto 280 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$723 (-6%) realized −$705 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%166W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days+$135
14 days+$192
30 days+$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$202
crypto 46% −$783
other 6% −$196
finance 0% −$40
weather 0% −$40
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +109.9% +89.9% 43% 43% +21.8%
≤30d 18 +87.0% +69.2% 50% 44% +22.3%
≤90d 278 +6.1% -4.0% 60% 59% -15.9%
all 278 +6.1% -4.0% 60% 59% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 59% -15.9%
10% -13.2% 54% -24.0%
15% -21.6% 47% -31.3%
20% -29.3% 34% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$45 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$705
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses166 / 112
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions2
Markets (closed)278 / 280
History coverage85d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 278 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 71¢ 60¢ $112 $95 −$17 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$13 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$39 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$29 +72%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 −$39 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +303%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$73 +1454%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$32 +81%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $100 +$170 +170%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $60 +$57 +95%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 03 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 22 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 15 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 15 $382 −$367 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 15 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 14 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 14 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 14 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 14 $22 +$11 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 14 $5 +$40 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 14 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 14 $26 +$22 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 14 $26 +$24 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 14 $41 +$17 +42%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 13 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 13 $11 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 13 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 13 $26 +$20 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 40h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $40 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $40 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $100 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $60 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $20 9d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 71¢ $114 11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $20 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $69 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.23 · official $192.23 (match) · 507 history records