Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:12:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0f0…e617 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$3
other 24% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 5% −$1
crypto 5% +$1
economics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 2% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.8% -10.3% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 16 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 16 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -10.1%
all 46 -2.2% -11.5% 33% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 2% -9.9%
10% -20.0% 2% -18.5%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage284d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $7 $0 -4%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $30 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $92 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $45 −$4 -10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $68 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $16 +$1 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -81%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Nov 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 04 $5 −$1 -26%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 31 $2 $0 -11%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 27 $1 $0 +23%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 27 $7 $0 +1%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 27 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Oct 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Oct 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 25 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in September 2025 Oct 24 $26 −$1 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $29 +$2 +6%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 30 $29 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $23 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $7 $0 -0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Sep 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 16h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $29 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $30 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $20 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $9 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $30 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $33 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $33 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $30 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $30 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $20 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $23 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $7 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $29 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $9 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $1 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $20 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.00 (match) · 195 history records