Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0fb…ec4f sports 852 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$197 (+1%) realized +$197 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%307W / 544L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days−$38
14 days−$78
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$675
other 38% −$698
crypto 1% −$164
world 1% +$283
weather 1% −$69
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +51.4% +37.0% 44% 44% -17.9%
≤30d 27 +21.5% +9.9% 41% 41% -18.1%
≤90d 256 +7.9% -2.4% 38% 38% -7.4%
all 851 -1.3% -10.7% 36% 35% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 35% -9.2%
10% -19.3% 35% -17.9%
15% -27.1% 33% -25.8%
20% -34.2% 32% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$21 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses307 / 544
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions0
Markets (closed)851 / 852
History coverage195d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 851 Trades
no open positions (455 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +50%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $61 +$58 +95%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$49 +473%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$21 +203%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$34 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $45 −$44 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 +$22 +543%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$50 +246%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $25 +$28 +112%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $37 −$36 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $42 −$41 -98%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 07 $77 −$12 -16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $50 +$34 +69%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 06 $66 +$27 +41%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 05 $15 −$14 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 05 $34 −$34 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $29 +$71 +250%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $56 −$53 -95%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $34 +$5 +15%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 29 $7 −$7 -97%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $17 −$2 -14%
Will Maccabi Tel Aviv FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 14 $32 +$66 +210%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 May 13 $38 −$12 -33%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $34 −$10 -30%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 13 $56 +$43 +76%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 May 12 $40 +$33 +83%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $61 −$60 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 11 $107 +$41 +38%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $13 −$13 -98%
Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to Score May 09 $58 +$43 +74%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $177 −$175 -99%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $46 +$54 +119%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) May 09 $19 +$81 +414%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $31 +$66 +216%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $41 −$22 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 13¢ $7 41m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $119 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $61 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 12¢ $3 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $10 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $31 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $10 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 33¢ $35 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $45 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $25 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $60 4d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $71 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $54 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $25 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11 BUY 19¢ $5 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $37 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $21 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 40¢ $42 10d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) SELL Zverev 57¢ $65 10d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) BUY Zverev 66¢ $77 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 91¢ $84 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 53¢ $50 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1522 history records