Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:08:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C0
0xc0fd…70db
other · 41 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$7 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$24
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage479d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 1 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $86 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $48 −$3 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 27 $14 −$2 -11%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will 'DAN DA DAN' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 22 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? May 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $16 −$1 -5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 14 $17 $0 -1%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? May 08 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania May 06 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Apr 01 $17 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 30 $17 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $16 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 26 $16 $0 +2%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $15 $0 +3%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Viktoria Plzen vs. Ferencvaros Mar 04 $8 +$8 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% +$2
politics 22% $0
world 11% −$3
crypto 9% +$2
tech 7% $0
sports 6% +$7
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $24 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 11h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 11h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 11h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 13h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 40h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 44h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 45h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $45 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $45 4d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $13 351d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $2 351d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? BUY No 97¢ $2 367d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 8¢ $3 381d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 91¢ $13 381d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 8¢ $10 381d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 9¢ $2 382d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 9¢ $2 382d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 9¢ $2 382d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 9¢ $2 382d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 9¢ $2 382d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 9¢ $6 382d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? SELL No 99¢ $16 383d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? BUY No 99¢ $16 384d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.8% -14.7% 25% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 4 -5.8% -14.7% 25% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 4 -5.8% -14.7% 25% 0% -11.7%
all 40 +2.5% -7.3% 40% 2% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 2% -8.6%
10% -16.2% 2% -17.4%
15% -24.3% 2% -25.4%
20% -31.7% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.88 · official $23.88 (match) · 99 history records