Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:08:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

C0 0xc0fd…0e1d crypto 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$897 (-29%) realized −$894 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate35%8W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$127per market

Trades / day4.9pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$68

7 days−$834

14 days−$1,005

30 days−$1,005

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-35.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-28.0%	-34.9%	35%	35%	-41.7%
≤30d	23	-29.0%	-35.7%	35%	35%	-40.5%
≤90d	23	-29.0%	-35.7%	35%	35%	-40.5%
all	23	-29.0%	-35.7%	35%	35%	-40.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-35.7%	35%	-40.5%
10%	-41.9%	35%	-46.2%
15%	-47.5%	35%	-51.4%
20%	-52.6%	26%	-56.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -29% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -27% → late -31% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$93 vs −$117 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.43 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$97

Realized−$894

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses8 / 15

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage13d

Avg bet$127

Trades / day4.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN Playoffs	Acend	33¢	32¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$50	−$49	-98%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 Portugal?	Jun 27	$188	−$183	-97%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs	Jun 27	$106	+$84	+80%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN	Jun 27	$74	+$81	+109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 25	$314	−$3	-1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 25	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Jun 25	$70	−$70	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Jun 25	$284	−$284	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Jun 25	$215	−$194	-90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Jun 25	$129	+$58	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 25	$222	+$201	+91%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr	Jun 25	$146	−$143	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Jun 24	$100	−$100	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Jun 24	$52	+$58	+112%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group	Jun 24	$66	+$52	+80%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 23	$309	−$309	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 21	$214	−$214	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 21	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Jun 21	$53	−$53	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Jun 21	$112	−$112	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 21	$102	+$41	+40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$100	+$170	+170%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P	BUY Acend	33¢	$102	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	48¢	$50	19h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 Portugal?	BUY Yes	4¢	$48	19h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 Portugal?	BUY Yes	4¢	$92	19h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs	SELL Acend	87¢	$190	19h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 Portugal?	BUY Yes	4¢	$49	23h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs	BUY Acend	48¢	$106	23h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN	SELL Inner Circle Esports	100¢	$154	23h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN	BUY Inner Circle Esports	47¢	$74	28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$284	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$26	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	SELL Up	44¢	$310	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$288	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	SELL Up	4¢	$21	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$26	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$188	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	SELL Up	59¢	$187	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$129	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	SELL Down	88¢	$423	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$222	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$26	3d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr	BUY 9INE	38¢	$146	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$5	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.07 · official $97.07 (match) · 78 history records