Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:44:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0ff…492f other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$1
politics 20% $0
world 16% $0
culture 12% $0
crypto 9% −$1
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 36 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage288d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $58 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 -12%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Sep 27 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 26 $30 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $2 $0 -3%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 22 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 21 $33 −$1 -3%
Will John Finucane win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 19 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 19 $3 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Sep 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Sep 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 15 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be bet Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Sep 13 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 08 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $32 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $2 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 12h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $34 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $34 23h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $19 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $35 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $15 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $5 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $19 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $38 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $20 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $14 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $34 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $5 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $33 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $38 29d
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $31 269d
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? BUY No 92¢ $31 269d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.54 · official $33.54 (match) · 112 history records