Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc103…8764 crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (151 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49 (-20%) realized −$48 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%17W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day151.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$59
other 3% −$1
world 2% −$5
sports 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (151 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -23.7% -31.0% 28% 25% -38.0%
≤30d 60 -23.7% -31.0% 28% 25% -38.0%
≤90d 60 -23.7% -31.0% 28% 25% -38.0%
all 60 -23.7% -31.0% 28% 25% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover151.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.0% 25% -38.0%
10% ← realistic here -37.6% 25% -43.9%
15% -43.6% 22% -49.3%
20% -49.2% 20% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses17 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day151.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$15 +364%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.14 · official $6.60 · 180 history records