Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:03:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C1 0xc104…5c1f crypto 216 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$226 (-8%) realized −$226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%93W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day41.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$267
7 days−$267
14 days−$266
30 days−$321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$354
other 17% +$36
sports 1% −$2
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -36.2% -42.3% 31% 25% -23.2%
≤30d 213 -15.0% -23.1% 44% 36% -19.6%
≤90d 213 -15.0% -23.1% 44% 36% -19.6%
all 213 -15.0% -23.1% 44% 36% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 36% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 26% -27.3%
15% -37.2% 19% -34.3%
20% -43.3% 13% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses93 / 120
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)213 / 216
History coverage17d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 60¢ 62¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $140 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $57 −$35 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$12 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $49 +$34 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$5 -10%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$13 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$12 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$24 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $252 +$47 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $36 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$7 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$5 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 25m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 61¢ $10 26m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $79 29m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.15 · official $41.15 (match) · 795 history records