Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:18:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C1 0xc107…f2cd crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$740 (+13%) realized +$799 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$219
14 days+$245
30 days+$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$468
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -41.2% -46.8% 33% 33% -45.0%
≤30d 25 -43.8% -49.1% 32% 28% +6.7%
≤90d 38 -30.5% -37.1% 32% 21% +4.0%
all 38 -30.5% -37.1% 32% 21% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.1% 21% +4.0%
10% -43.1% 18% -6.0%
15% -48.6% 16% -15.0%
20% -53.7% 11% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$29 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized+$799
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage58d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $159 $128 −$31 (-20%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $111 $85 −$26 (-24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $26 +$10 +40%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $31 −$29 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $105 +$35 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 13 $106 −$97 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $42 +$62 +147%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $54 −$49 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $87 −$82 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $91 −$86 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $623 −$43 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $456 −$143 -31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $55 +$25 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$12 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $18 −$16 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $13 −$12 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $71 −$22 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $61 −$43 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $201 +$14 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $967 +$812 +84%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,372 +$217 +16%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 02 $55 +$64 +116%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 17 $110 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 17 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 17 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 15 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 15 $100 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 15 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? May 14 $14 +$9 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 01 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 21 $51 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 21 $93 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $108 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $53 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $169 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 34¢ $36 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 22¢ $26 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $53 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 48¢ $140 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? SELL No 1¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? SELL No 1¢ $6 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 46¢ $105 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $2 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $42 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 6¢ $7 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 0¢ $2 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 3¢ $31 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 3¢ $11 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 3¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 6¢ $36 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 4¢ $11 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 10¢ $53 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 10¢ $11 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 13¢ $17 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.40 · official $272.11 · 219 history records