Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:27:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C1 0xc10a…cef2 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL −$70 (-11%) realized −$51 · open −$19

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip

Net edge+27%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$162per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+32.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+45.9%	+32.0%	100%	100%	+23.2%
≤30d	3	+45.9%	+32.0%	100%	100%	+23.2%
≤90d	3	+45.9%	+32.0%	100%	100%	+23.2%
all	3	+45.9%	+32.0%	100%	100%	+23.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+32.0%	100%	+23.2%
10%	+19.4%	100%	+11.4%
15%	+7.9%	33%	+0.6%
20%	-2.7%	33%	-9.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +36% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +46% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$54 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$181

Realized−$51

Unrealized−$19

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$162

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Vitality	68¢	62¢	$200	$181	−$19 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$295	+$90	+30%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$101	+$34	+34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 18	$51	+$37	+73%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Vitality	68¢	$202	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	SELL Spirit	100¢	$385	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY Spirit	76¢	$295	7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY FURIA	74¢	$101	28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Aurora Gaming	57¢	$51	31h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.88 · official $180.88 (match) · 7 history records