Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:48:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C1 0xc112…3841 sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 731d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$47 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 57L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$174est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$640now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$460
7 days−$112
14 days−$112
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$171
other 15% +$1
crypto 6% −$10
politics 1% −$12
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -10.7% -19.2% 37% 37% -12.9%
≤30d 27 -10.7% -19.2% 37% 37% -12.9%
≤90d 47 -12.0% -20.4% 36% 34% -20.1%
all 89 -12.1% -20.5% 36% 34% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 34% -10.1%
10% -28.1% 31% -18.7%
15% -35.0% 27% -26.6%
20% -41.4% 20% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$63 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

731d coverage
Net worth$640
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$174
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage731d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $563 $545 −$17 (-3%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $46 −$46 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $95 −$85 -89%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $123 −$86 -70%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $208 −$95 -46%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $30 +$13 +43%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $81 −$25 -31%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$160 +158%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $312 −$89 -28%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $67 −$4 -7%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $91 −$6 -6%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $161 +$118 +73%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $17 +$9 +52%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $4 −$2 -43%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $305 −$110 -36%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $301 +$41 +14%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $55 −$19 -34%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $123 −$121 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $15 +$8 +52%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $70 −$69 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $60 −$13 -22%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $134 −$118 -88%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $144 +$133 +92%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $203 +$97 +48%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $145 +$178 +124%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $47 +$56 +120%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $16 −$3 -16%
Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $63 −$62 -99%
Viborg FF vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $570 −$568 -100%
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $740 −$300 -40%
Real Oviedo vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $398 −$391 -98%
Real Oviedo vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $275 −$67 -24%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $285 −$285 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner Apr 26 $192 −$180 -94%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $125 −$63 -51%
1. FC Nürnberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $112 −$111 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 26 $268 +$16 +6%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $162 −$102 -63%
Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $50 −$44 -88%
Sydney FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $220 +$60 +27%
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $25 +$12 +47%
Will CF América vs. Atlas FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $180 +$726 +404%
San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $255 +$235 +92%
St. Louis City SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $122 +$137 +112%
Nashville SC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $480 +$230 +48%
FC Cincinnati vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $30 −$23 -76%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) Mar 18 $279 +$21 +8%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Mar 18 $324 +$76 +24%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 17 $77 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $64 42m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 43m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $508 43m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 SELL Over $0 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 SELL Over $0 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 SELL Over $0 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $0 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $10 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 14¢ $37 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $113 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $31 7h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 13¢ $46 7h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $95 8h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $123 8h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $208 8h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $43 8h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $30 10h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 56¢ $20 11h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 42¢ $18 11h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 44¢ $20 11h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 59¢ $36 11h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 67¢ $41 11h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over $22 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $51 19h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $101 20h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 35¢ $67 20h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 20h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 63¢ $62 20h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $67 20h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $133 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $640.31 · official $628.83 · 342 history records