Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc117…d5cc crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$21 (-4%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$78
other 23% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -17.1% -25.0% 60% 40% -27.6%
≤30d 15 -17.1% -25.0% 60% 40% -27.6%
≤90d 15 -17.1% -25.0% 60% 40% -27.6%
all 15 -17.1% -25.0% 60% 40% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 40% -27.6%
10% -32.2% 33% -34.5%
15% -38.7% 27% -40.8%
20% -44.7% 13% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$29 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage25d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$40 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$6 +37%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$11 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $24 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $56 +$9 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$21 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$4 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $80 +$1 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? Jun 16 $14 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $30 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $32 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $56 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $65 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $41 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $80 5h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 27¢ $17 24d
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 97¢ $14 24d
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records