Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C1 0xc117…a1bd sports 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-4%) realized −$36 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate91%71W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$16
other 32% −$11
crypto 9% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 59 -4.2% -13.3% 92% 2% -14.7%
≤90d 78 -4.5% -13.6% 91% 1% -14.0%
all 78 -4.5% -13.6% 91% 1% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 1% -14.0%
10% -21.9% 1% -22.2%
15% -29.4% 1% -29.7%
20% -36.3% 1% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses71 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 81
History coverage51d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 38¢ 62¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+60%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 3 Tunisia? No 99¢ 100¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Diane Parry 92¢ 91¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $12 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +3%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will FC Ryūkyū win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) May 31 $12 $0 +1%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) May 30 $12 $0 +2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $8 +$6 +76%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 May 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) May 30 $12 $0 +3%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5 May 30 $12 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 29 $13 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca (BO5) - ESL Challenger League North Americ May 29 $12 +$1 +5%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 May 29 $12 $0 +3%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: X-CITY vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - Exort Series Main St May 28 $12 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: 25 cents vs largadosypelados - Map 1 Winner May 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $6 $0 +2%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm May 28 $6 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 28 $6 $0 +2%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 May 28 $6 $0 +1%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 28 $6 $0 +1%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) May 28 $6 $0 +4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 May 28 $12 $0 +2%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-05-17? May 27 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 27 $6 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 12AM ET May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) May 27 $6 $0 +1%
PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty: O/U 176.5 May 26 $6 $0 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 26 $6 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 26 $6 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 25 $6 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 25 $6 $0 +3%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) May 25 $6 $0 +3%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 May 25 $6 $0 +1%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5) May 24 $6 $0 +2%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 May 24 $12 $0 +2%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 May 24 $6 $0 +1%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) May 23 $6 $0 +5%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 May 23 $6 $0 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 May 23 $6 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 22 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 3AM ET May 22 $6 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 22 $6 $0 +5%
Will Barcelona SC win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $6 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Procyon Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 21 $6 $0 +1%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 5.5 May 21 $6 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 3 Tunisia? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 98¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 96¢ $12 3h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 92¢ $12 3h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY No 94¢ $12 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 6h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 95¢ $12 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY No 98¢ $12 6h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY New York Yankees 99¢ $12 6h
Will FC Ryūkyū win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 98¢ $12 14d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 99¢ $12 14d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 98¢ $12 15d
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 94¢ $12 16d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $8 16d
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 97¢ $12 16d
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 97¢ $12 16d
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $13 16d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca (BO5) - ESL Challenger League North Americ BUY M80 95¢ $12 16d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 96¢ $12 17d
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 BUY No 97¢ $12 17d
Counter-Strike: 25 cents vs largadosypelados - Map 1 Winner BUY largadosypelados 99¢ $12 17d
Counter-Strike: X-CITY vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - Exort Series Main St BUY INFURITY Gaming 98¢ $12 17d
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 18d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $6 18d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $6 18d
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm BUY Washington Mystics 92¢ $6 18d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 98¢ $6 18d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 98¢ $6 18d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 96¢ $6 18d
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 98¢ $6 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.23 · official $39.23 (match) · 197 history records