Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc117…13cd world 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$43 (-1%) realized −$295 · open +$252
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$241
sports 27% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -14.6% -22.7% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 14 -11.0% -19.5% 43% 7% -10.6%
all 14 -11.0% -19.5% 43% 7% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 7% -10.6%
10% -27.2% 7% -19.2%
15% -34.2% 0% -27.0%
20% -40.7% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$28 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized−$295
Unrealized+$252
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage92d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? No 95¢ $0 $252 +$252 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Jun 22 $255 $0 +0%
Spread: IK Start (-2.5) May 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? May 25 $69 $0 +0%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5 May 25 $480 +$30 +6%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? May 24 $529 −$5 -1%
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) May 24 $456 +$33 +7%
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? May 23 $451 $0 +0%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? May 23 $446 +$5 +1%
Spread: SS Juve Stabia (-1.5) May 19 $49 −$49 -100%
NATO dissolves before 2027? May 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 07 $96 +$1 +1%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Apr 18 $350 −$11 -3%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 16 $310 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 29 $3 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $252 2m
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $12 7m
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $242 7m
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $255 1h
Spread: IK Start (-2.5) BUY IK Start $24 28d
Spread: IK Start (-2.5) BUY IK Start $24 28d
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? SELL Yes $34 28d
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? SELL Yes $36 28d
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? BUY Yes $34 28d
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? BUY Yes $35 28d
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $480 29d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 29d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $38 29d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $5 29d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $38 29d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $481 29d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $486 29d
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) BUY Sydney FC 93¢ $456 30d
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $451 30d
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $451 30d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $451 30d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $446 33d
Spread: SS Juve Stabia (-1.5) BUY SS Juve Stabia $25 34d
Spread: SS Juve Stabia (-1.5) BUY SS Juve Stabia $24 34d
NATO dissolves before 2027? SELL Yes $3 34d
NATO dissolves before 2027? SELL Yes $24 34d
NATO dissolves before 2027? SELL Yes $24 34d
NATO dissolves before 2027? BUY Yes $26 34d
NATO dissolves before 2027? BUY Yes $25 34d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 65¢ $97 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.62 · official $251.62 (match) · 44 history records