Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc120…c276 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$848 (-8%) realized +$1,196 · open −$2,044
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$7,689now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$37
14 days+$42
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$2,078
sports 2% +$92
crypto 0% $0
world 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +64.3% +48.7% 100% 100% +41.1%
≤30d 22 +25.2% +13.3% 64% 64% +5.7%
≤90d 22 +25.2% +13.3% 64% 64% +5.7%
all 22 +25.2% +13.3% 64% 64% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.3% 64% +5.7%
10% +2.5% 64% -4.4%
15% -7.4% 59% -13.7%
20% -16.5% 50% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$7,689
Realized+$1,196
Unrealized−$2,044
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 30
History coverage11d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $7,833 $6,721 −$1,113 (-14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,750 $875 −$875 (-50%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $94 −$56 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 +$6 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: Ar Jun 17 $5 +$5 +104%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +51%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +39%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +109%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +68%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 +$11 +206%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $6 +$5 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$5 +31%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $11 −$10 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$15 +140%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$24 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$38 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,898 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $6,137 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 65¢ $51 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: Ar BUY 48¢ $5 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 7d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY 65¢ $10 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5 7d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $6 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 59¢ $10 7d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $11 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 63¢ $10 7d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 71¢ $15 7d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 7d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $15 7d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 7d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $11 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 8d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 8d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $11 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $34 10d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Aus BUY 19¢ $10 10d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY $51 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY $10 10d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 12¢ $21 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,689.41 · official $7,739.41 (match) · 57 history records