Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:03:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C1 0xc123…ed5b crypto 670 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$620 (+5%) realized +$644 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%176W / 493L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day66.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$371
7 days−$371
14 days−$2,254
30 days−$953
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$31
weather 5% −$165
politics 3% $0
other 1% −$24
world 1% −$19
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -2.0% -11.3% 58% 51% -11.3%
≤30d 619 -46.0% -51.2% 22% 21% -15.5%
≤90d 669 -32.5% -38.9% 26% 25% -10.6%
all 669 -32.5% -38.9% 26% 25% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.9% 25% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -44.8% 20% -19.2%
15% -50.1% 18% -27.0%
20% -55.0% 17% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$8 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$644
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses176 / 493
Open positions1
Markets (closed)669 / 670
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day66.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 669 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $134 $110 −$24 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $301 +$77 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $13 +$17 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $22 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $22 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $22 +$15 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 29 $125 +$27 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 29 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $125 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 29 $64 +$15 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $171 +$42 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $64 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 29 $22 +$28 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $117 +$33 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $253 −$42 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $64 −$17 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $103 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $202 −$56 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $44 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $64 +$16 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $270 −$269 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 28 $64 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 28 $36 −$11 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 28 $117 −$20 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $154 −$13 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $79 +$21 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $147 −$53 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $189 +$44 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 28 $239 −$171 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $43 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $85 +$26 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $64 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $125 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $42 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $22 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $208 −$106 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $125 +$25 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $125 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $164 −$75 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $7 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 28 $85 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $222 +$29 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $43 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $62 +$56 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $59 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $64 +$7 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $378 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $22 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $72 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $66 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $20 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $38 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $40 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $22 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.68 · official $109.68 (match) · 3500 history records