Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc125…78fb weather 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%142W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$26
politics 2% $0
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 79 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 130 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 150 +0.1% -9.5% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×33.35 per $1 lost it wins $33.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses142 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage142d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $115 $116 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 28 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25? Jun 26 $424 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 24? Jun 25 $432 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 23? Jun 24 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 22? Jun 22 $236 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? Jun 21 $547 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $547 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $547 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 15 $517 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $547 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $547 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $262 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 10? Jun 10 $211 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $188 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $134 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $540 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $216 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $333 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 7? Jun 08 $214 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $248 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on June 6 Jun 07 $278 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $258 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 06 $198 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 06 $338 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 5? Jun 05 $426 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $374 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 3? Jun 03 $76 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $157 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $115 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $549 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $136 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $135 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $424 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $128 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $128 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $432 4d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $120 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $229 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $547 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $547 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $546 11d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $547 12d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $42 13d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $517 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 100¢ $52 14d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 100¢ $494 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $544 15d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $547 15d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $546 15d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.71 · official $115.71 (match) · 325 history records