Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C1 0xc126…08f1 sports 295 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$974 (-2%) realized −$948 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%171W / 123L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$716
7 days−$872
14 days−$916
30 days−$958
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$1,734
other 3% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -3.8% -13.0% 65% 48% -19.7%
≤30d 70 -13.9% -22.1% 57% 44% -20.1%
≤90d 143 -10.5% -19.0% 54% 45% -40.7%
all 294 +0.7% -8.8% 58% 52% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 52% -13.3%
10% -17.6% 45% -21.6%
15% -25.5% 37% -29.2%
20% -32.8% 29% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$73 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$948
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses171 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions1
Markets (closed)294 / 295
History coverage228d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 294 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 12¢ $30 $4 −$26 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $822 −$636 -77%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 $0 -0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 +$20 +20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 +$2 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $839 +$90 +11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $743 +$97 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $545 +$59 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1,004 −$652 -65%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$10 +100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,002 +$85 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1,002 +$73 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $160 +$1 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$3 +30%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$74 +73%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $10 +$5 +50%
LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs Jun 02 $5 +$11 +221%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $15 −$2 -10%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $5 +$5 +93%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $5 +$6 +124%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $16 +$2 +15%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challen May 29 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 3 Winner May 28 $14 +$6 +46%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 2 Winner May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $5 +$1 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $5 +$1 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 24 $5 +$5 +100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 24 $17 +$2 +11%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 24 $5 +$1 +13%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 24 $5 +$3 +54%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner May 23 $5 +$2 +44%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $5 $0 +3%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 4 Winner May 23 $5 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 21¢ $186 41m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $822 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $99 4h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $38 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $1 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $1 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $4 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $1 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $1 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $1 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $50 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $1 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $1 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $1 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 25h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $101 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $63 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 31¢ $31 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $839 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $743 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $603 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 90¢ $545 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 30¢ $353 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 85¢ $1,004 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 50¢ $6 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 50¢ $1 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 50¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.62 · official $3.62 (match) · 661 history records