trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | No | 66¢ | 67¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | Yes | 35¢ | 19¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-45%) |
| Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET | Up | 30¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET | Jun 14 | $5 | −$2 | -30% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $2 | −$1 | -71% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET | Jun 13 | $4 | +$1 | +19% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET | Jun 12 | $3 | +$1 | +18% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET | Jun 12 | $4 | +$1 | +14% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -35.0% | -41.1% | 40% | 30% | -24.7% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -35.0% | -41.1% | 40% | 30% | -24.7% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -35.0% | -41.1% | 40% | 30% | -24.7% |
| all | 10 | -35.0% | -41.1% | 40% | 30% | -24.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -41.1% | 30% | -24.7% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -46.8% | 0% | -31.9% |
| 15% | -51.9% | 0% | -38.5% |
| 20% | -56.6% | 0% | -44.5% |