Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc128…bb7b world 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$4
other 15% −$1
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
politics 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.1% -3.1% 50% 50% -3.8%
≤30d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 11% -8.4%
≤90d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 11% -8.4%
all 20 -9.5% -18.1% 40% 5% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 5% -11.0%
10% -26.0% 0% -19.5%
15% -33.1% 0% -27.3%
20% -39.7% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage465d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $35 +$5 +14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $68 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $69 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Another crypto hack over $1b before April? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Israel military action against Iranian nuclear facility in March? Mar 27 $14 $0 +1%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Mar 18 $14 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $43 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $43 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $14 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $26 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $8 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $26 13h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $37 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $37 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $30 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $34 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $34 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $34 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $19 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $19 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $34 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $6 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $19 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $10 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $21 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records