Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc12a…30ee sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 561d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,177 (-22%) realized −$2,173 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$222
14 days−$162
30 days−$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$1,410
crypto 21% −$886
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +10.0% -0.5% 50% 50% -0.1%
≤30d 23 -10.3% -18.8% 39% 39% -16.4%
≤90d 32 +2.3% -7.5% 34% 34% -27.5%
all 33 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 33% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 33% -32.2%
10% -17.4% 33% -38.6%
15% -25.4% 30% -44.6%
20% -32.7% 30% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$220 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

561d coverage
Net worth$396
Realized−$2,173
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage561d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $400 $396 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $373 −$190 -51%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $134 +$45 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $201 +$234 +116%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $125 −$124 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $255 +$226 +89%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $113 −$110 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $298 −$23 -8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $105 +$131 +125%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $123 +$279 +226%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $124 −$122 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $193 −$190 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $61 +$34 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $130 +$131 +101%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $12 +$18 +158%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $57 −$56 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $113 −$55 -49%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $174 −$170 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $51 +$58 +114%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $82 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $49 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $633 −$628 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $340 +$292 +86%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $524 −$514 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 15 $1,201 −$269 -22%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $749 −$444 -59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $137 +$1,102 +806%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 11 $170 −$166 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $228 −$222 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $353 −$345 -98%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Dec 04 $2,087 −$886 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $406 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $192 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 40¢ $194 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $181 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $179 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 74¢ $134 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $435 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $201 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $125 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $154 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 32¢ $256 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 12¢ $100 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 22¢ $113 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 44¢ $112 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 76¢ $197 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 30¢ $163 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 33¢ $236 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 18¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 14¢ $105 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $402 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $123 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $124 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $193 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $95 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $61 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 19¢ $102 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $262 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 49¢ $130 6d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 38¢ $12 8d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 28¢ $57 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.65 · official $395.65 (match) · 58 history records