Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:58:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc12c…da6e weather 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$25 (+1%) realized +$73 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%26W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$51
14 days−$361
30 days−$459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$480
weather 37% −$310
sports 14% −$197
crypto 3% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -64.8% -68.1% 0% 0% -50.3%
≤30d 11 -49.3% -54.1% 27% 27% -60.4%
≤90d 54 -28.9% -35.7% 48% 48% -11.9%
all 54 -28.9% -35.7% 48% 48% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 48% -11.9%
10% -41.8% 30% -20.3%
15% -47.5% 17% -28.0%
20% -52.6% 9% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$37 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses26 / 28
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage38d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $76 $28 −$48 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $93 −$31 -34%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $385 −$197 -51%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 −$113 -56%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 29 $14 −$13 -94%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 29? May 29 $5 +$3 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 28? May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma May 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 23? May 23 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 23? May 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 23? May 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 23? May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 21? May 21 $11 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? May 21 $14 −$12 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 21? May 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on May 21? May 21 $14 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 56°F or higher on May 20? May 21 $12 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 21? May 21 $12 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21? May 21 $11 +$6 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on May 2 May 21 $13 +$6 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 87°F or below on May 21? May 21 $21 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 20? May 21 $12 +$16 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 20? May 21 $11 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on May 20? May 20 $19 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 20? May 20 $18 +$6 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 20? May 20 $15 +$4 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 20? May 20 $11 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 20? May 20 $17 +$4 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 20? May 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 20? May 19 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $580 +$827 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16? May 16 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 16? May 16 $83 −$38 -46%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 16 $39 +$6 +15%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $249 −$134 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 16? May 16 $61 +$11 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 16? May 16 $56 +$13 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 16? May 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 16? May 16 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 16 $79 +$16 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 16? May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 17? May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 16? May 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16? May 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on May 16? May 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16? May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May May 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma May 14 $86 −$59 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $73 1h
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $90 1h
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 1h
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $50 1h
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 1h
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 3h
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3h
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $61 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $93 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $62 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $20 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $55 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $33 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $154 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $126 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $68 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $135 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $201 7d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $83 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $14 23d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 29? SELL No 99¢ $8 23d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 28? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 25d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 29? BUY No 65¢ $5 25d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 25d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 23? BUY No 79¢ $5 30d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma BUY No 83¢ $5 30d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 23? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.14 · official $28.14 (match) · 145 history records