Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:28:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc12c…64c4 crypto 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$312 (+5%) realized +$267 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate60%76W / 51L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$124
14 days+$273
30 days+$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$77
other 11% +$365
sports 7% +$168
world 1% −$56
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +60.2% +44.9% 57% 57% +19.9%
≤30d 41 +39.1% +25.8% 61% 56% +5.3%
≤90d 127 +10.1% -0.4% 60% 44% -1.6%
all 127 +10.1% -0.4% 60% 44% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 44% -1.6%
10% -9.9% 32% -11.0%
15% -18.6% 25% -19.6%
20% -26.6% 23% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$267
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses76 / 51
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 132
History coverage76d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 41¢ 100¢ $31 $77 +$45 (+144%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $29 +$33 +112%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 −$7 -18%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 Jun 20 $17 +$30 +181%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 +$48 +144%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 +$16 +67%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $84 −$27 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$12 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$11 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $7 +$11 +157%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$17 +174%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$9 +89%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$19 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $140 −$99 -71%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $109 +$36 +33%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $169 +$18 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $134 +$34 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $122 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $99 +$23 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $210 +$18 +8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $62 +$35 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $30 +$30 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $57 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $90 +$22 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $8 +$27 +340%
DR Congo vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$5 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$18 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $30 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$24 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 08 $46 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 08 $13 +$8 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$7 +105%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 16 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 16 $41 −$26 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 16 $31 +$16 +52%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $24 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 16 $17 +$17 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 14 $39 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 14 $21 +$19 +93%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 14 $26 −$5 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $32 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 35¢ $32 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $63 3h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $62 6h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $29 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $30 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 77¢ $36 7h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will N BUY 22¢ $13 32h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 AND Will S BUY 39¢ $0 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $23 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 BUY 35¢ $17 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $24 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea Repub BUY 7¢ $6 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1. BUY 19¢ $6 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $37 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $37 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $47 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $47 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $59 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.75 · official $89.85 · 341 history records