Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:30:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C1 0xc133…352a politics 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+2%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate88%38W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$16
14 days+$34
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$30
politics 29% +$17
other 21% +$42
sports 14% −$52
tech 3% +$5
finance 2% +$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.9% -4.1% 100% 0% -4.5%
≤30d 20 +4.7% -5.2% 95% 15% -5.9%
≤90d 43 +2.2% -7.6% 88% 16% -8.1%
all 43 +2.2% -7.6% 88% 16% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 16% -8.1%
10% -16.4% 0% -16.9%
15% -24.5% 0% -24.9%
20% -31.9% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$20 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$382
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses38 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)43 / 50
History coverage79d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $64 $63 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? No 88¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 87¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
New Half-Life game by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $115 +$5 +5%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $45 +$4 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $40 +$3 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $53 +$2 +3%
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 12 $76 +$2 +3%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 10 $29 $0 +2%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 09 $123 +$15 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $63 +$2 +3%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $96 −$16 -17%
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $50 +$3 +7%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 03 $23 +$2 +11%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 03 $50 +$5 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $140 +$4 +3%
Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? May 31 $68 +$3 +5%
Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? May 31 $25 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $43 +$2 +6%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $65 +$3 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $65 +$4 +5%
Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? May 20 $129 +$4 +3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leagu May 17 $100 −$51 -51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 14 $141 +$5 +4%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem May 11 $55 +$3 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 11 $136 +$6 +4%
Will Galatasaray win the Süper Lig? May 09 $74 +$5 +7%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 09 $22 −$5 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $70 +$1 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $68 +$1 +2%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 03 $50 −$16 -32%
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? May 02 $124 +$6 +5%
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? May 02 $60 +$5 +8%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 01 $20 +$3 +15%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $36 $0 +0%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier Apr 27 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Fenerbahçe win the Süper Lig? Apr 27 $50 +$10 +21%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 22 $50 +$3 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $49 −$12 -25%
Will Trabzonspor win the Süper Lig? Apr 18 $58 +$8 +13%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $33 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 1h
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 88¢ $50 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $120 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 10h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 10h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $44 41h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $45 41h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $43 41h
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 41h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $50 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $55 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $39 7d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 87¢ $39 7d
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? SELL No 91¢ $78 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 9d
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? SELL No 98¢ $29 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $23 11d
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro SELL Yes 99¢ $23 11d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $65 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 14d
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? BUY No 97¢ $29 15d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 15d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 77¢ $80 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $63 16d
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 92¢ $40 16d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 91¢ $40 16d
New Half-Life game by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $40 16d
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial SELL Yes 100¢ $49 16d
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? SELL No 100¢ $53 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $381.64 · official $381.64 (match) · 119 history records