Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:56:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc138…2ec6 sports 193 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$334 (-18%) realized −$302 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%54W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$185
14 days+$219
30 days+$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$459
sports 24% +$194
politics 15% −$115
world 3% +$84
tech 1% +$6
crypto 1% +$44
culture 0% −$4
weather 0% +$8
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +144.7% +121.4% 75% 75% +133.4%
≤30d 24 +66.9% +51.0% 54% 54% +69.3%
≤90d 152 -24.8% -31.9% 26% 26% -43.0%
all 180 -5.3% -14.4% 30% 29% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 29% -21.2%
10% -22.5% 27% -28.8%
15% -30.0% 27% -35.7%
20% -36.9% 25% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$7 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$302
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses54 / 126
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)180 / 193
History coverage144d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $160 $161 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 24¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$43 +417%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$28 +274%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$15 +150%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$23 +229%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$10 -64%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$36 +238%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$21 +209%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +15%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 06 $33 −$13 -39%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 13 $2 +$6 +291%
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 11 $2 −$1 -38%
UK Recession in 2026? May 11 $1 $0 -11%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 11 $10 −$9 -87%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 11 $25 −$3 -11%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 11 $5 −$3 -56%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 11 $4 $0 -9%
Will Alberta join the US? May 11 $5 −$2 -35%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $12 −$11 -88%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Trump say "Daddy" this week? May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200? May 10 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? May 10 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 10 $2 +$2 +101%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 07 $7 +$10 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 06 $3 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 46¢ $70 4h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 10h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 40¢ $50 10h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 18h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 32¢ $5 31h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 29¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Will S BUY 16¢ $2 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w BUY 41¢ $10 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY $2 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 35¢ $5 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL 99¢ $53 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY 26¢ $5 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 49¢ $10 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 19¢ $10 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 18¢ $10 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 26¢ $10 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 24¢ $5 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL 98¢ $26 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 38¢ $10 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL 98¢ $34 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 29¢ $10 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $5 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.90 · official $219.90 (match) · 377 history records