Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C1 0xc145…0e82 crypto 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+5%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%60W / 38L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$10
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +8.7% -1.6% 67% 67% -4.9%
≤30d 98 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 61% -7.3%
≤90d 98 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 61% -7.3%
all 98 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 61% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 61% -7.3%
10% -15.8% 61% -16.2%
15% -23.9% 57% -24.3%
20% -31.4% 47% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses60 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage14d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records