Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc148…13d0 sports 269 markets active 4h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$14 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%127W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$146
14 days+$62
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$65
sports 42% −$51
crypto 2% −$22
politics 1% +$1
world 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +10.6% +0.1% 59% 56% +6.3%
≤30d 249 -6.0% -15.0% 51% 49% -8.1%
≤90d 255 -7.7% -16.4% 50% 48% -8.9%
all 255 -7.7% -16.4% 50% 48% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 48% -8.9%
10% -24.4% 44% -17.6%
15% -31.7% 38% -25.6%
20% -38.4% 30% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses127 / 128
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions13
Markets (closed)255 / 269
History coverage37d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 92¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 66¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $5 +$1 +20%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $3 +$1 +44%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $5 +$6 +118%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $5 +$3 +58%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Bhambri/Venus vs Arevalo/Pavic Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $60 +$3 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$21 +206%
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 17 $3 +$2 +59%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $3 +$2 +59%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $3 +$1 +35%
ITF Constanta: Nicolas Garcia Longo vs Rares Teodor Pieleanu Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $8 −$3 -37%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $5 −$2 -50%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
ITF Bucharest: Nada Fouad vs Alessia Marinescu Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$16 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $65 +$16 +24%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $3 +$5 +172%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $5 +$6 +121%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 6h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 83¢ $5 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 18h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva SELL Alina Charaeva 100¢ $11 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 19h
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Dalibor Svrcina 41¢ $2 19h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 69¢ $3 19h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 45¢ $5 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 20h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 62¢ $5 20h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 57¢ $5 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $60 28h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 28h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Guido Justo 51¢ $5 38h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 56¢ $5 38h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Bhambri/Venus vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Arevalo/Pavic 63¢ $5 2d
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm $5 2d
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Jazmin Ortenzi 43¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 95¢ $60 2d
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 61¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna SELL Juan Manuel La Serna 100¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.22 · official $242.22 (match) · 482 history records